NFL WEEK 4 Six Pack

Published on 09/29/11

By Spike Measer 9/28/11

Detroit @ Dallas -2

Last year it was Shaun Hill vs John Kitna when Dallas won 35-19 as 6 point home favorites…Romo has been sacked 6 times already, but Cowboys D has registered 13 on opposing QB’s (Ware and Spencer have combined for 8)…five receivers have at least 7 catches…Lions averaging less than 3 yards per carry, allowing 5.0…four players with at least 14 receptions, averaging 11+ yards per catch…Detroit has now won seven consecutibe regular season games dating back to Week 14 2010

New Orleans -7 @ Jacksonville

Saints averaging just under 100 yards per game rushing…New Orleans has five players with at least 10 receptions and one TD…Saints have scored at least 30 points in five of last seven road games…D has just one pick thru three games…Jacksonville has less than 800 yards of offense thru three games…Jags are -33 in point differential…Jax 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS vs non-conference opponents in 2010…4-6 ATS as home dog since 2007

Pittsburgh @ Houston -4

Steelers 7-2 ATS as away dog since 2008…17-17-2 ATS vs AFC opponents since ’08…12-11-1 ATS in all road games since ’08…Pitt is +450 offensive yards thru three games…Steelers averaging just 3.3 yards per carry…five players are averaging more than 14 yards per reception… Houston has identical 17-17-2 ATS record vs conference opponents since 2008…8-8-3 as home favorite in same span…Texans have scored at least 27 points in nine of their last 19 regular season games…35% of Matt Schaub’s completions have gone to Andre Johnson…Houston is +7 minutes in TOP…Texans D allowing 4.8 yards per rush

Miami @ San Diego -7 ½

Miami has won eight of nine games in this series dating back to 1999…Dolphins 16-5 ATS as road dog since 2008…eight of last nineteen regular season games decided by 5 points or less…’Fins have allowed just one rushing TD, but eight passing scores thru three games…Chargers are 9-6-1 ATS as home favorite since 2009 (SD has been a home dog just once in the last 6 seasons)…SD is 18-18-1 ATS vs AFC opponents since 2008…Phil Rivers 68% completions, but only 4 TD’s against 6 INT’s…RB Mike Tolbert continues to lead team in receptions…injury note: TE Antonio Gates could miss extended time with nagging foot injury

New England -4 @ Oakland

Patriots have scored 30+ points in eleven consecutive regular season games…13-9-2 ATS vs AFC opposition since 2009…4-6-1 ATS as road favorite since 2009…New England has outscored their opponent 55-24 in first half this season…Oakland, 2-1 SU so far, has won more than five regular season games just once since their Super Bowl season of 2002 (8-8 in 2010)…ten players have at least 2 receptions (RB McFadden leads with 11)…Raiders have registered ten sacks while allowing only two…Oakland has scored at least 28 points in six of their last eight regular season games…have outscored the opposition 54-23 in the first half this season

NY Jets @ Baltimore -3 ½

Ravens have held opposition under the 20 point mark in 13 of their last 19 regular season games…Baltimore has won five straight in this series dating back to 2000…Ravens 21-16-1 ATS vs AFC since 2008 (Joe Flacco rookie season)…14-7-1 ATS as home favorite over same span…Baltimore won 10-9 last year as one point road dog in season opening MNF contest…Jets 19-16 ATS since 2009 (Ryan/Sanchez initial seasons)…16-10 ATS vs AFC over same period…NYJ averaging only 3.4 yards per rush, while allowing 4.8…have allowed five rushing touchdowns thru three games (11 all of last year)

NFL WEEK 3 Six Pack

 

Published on 09/22/11

By Spike Measer 9/21/11

New England -9 @ Buffalo

Bill Belichick 20-3 SU all-time vs Buffalo…Tom Brady 17-1 vs Bills (39 TD’s, 12 INT’s)…Buffalo has not defeated the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 season…Buffalo 0-4-1 ATS last 5 games in Orchard Park…Both Brady and Fitzpatrick have thrown 7 TD’s and just 1 pick thru 2 games this season…Both teams have put points on the board in 7 of 8 quarters of play…Bills have not allowed a point in the first quarter…Patriots have not allowed a point in the second quarter…New England has scored at least 31 points in 10 consecutive regular season games…Pats are 13-5 ATS last 18 regular season games

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (NL)

Eli Manning 5 TD’s, 6 INT’s last three games in Philly (NYG 1-2 ATS) Giants have scored exactly 17 points last two games here…are -4 in turnovers…Big Blue D allowing 5.3 yards per play…Giants just 6 of 25 on third down (24%)…New Yorkers have not scored a point in the fourth quarter…Eagles RB LeSean McCoy averaging 6+ yds per touch (33 rush, 6 rec)…Eagles have 9 sacks thru 2 games, but D allowing 5.1 yards per play…this is Philly home opener (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS at home in 2010)…Eagles allowed 151 yds and 14 pts in 4^th qtr vs Atl.

Detroit -3 ½ @ Minnesota

Lions have won six consecutive regular season games (6-0 ATS) Detroit is 2-0 SU and ATS this year, with both games going over the total…Lions have been a road favorite only four times in the last ten years (0-4 ATS)…Detroit has outscored their opposition 40-16 in first half…five players have at least 5 receptions, and all are averaging over 10 yards per catch…O-Line has not allowed a sack…Vikings were 0-3 as home dog last year…McNabb struggling so far- 1 Td, 1 INT, 55% completions…Adrian Peterson has touched the ball on 45 of the Vikings 108 offensive snaps (41%)…AP averaging 5+ ypc…Minny has been outscored 41-3 in second half in just two games…

Kansas City @ San Diego -14

Chiefs already -79 in point differential…have not scored in the second half…KC is -9 minutes in TOP…-7 turnover margin…last 3 games in San Diego, Chiefs have been outscored 94-34…had just 67 yards total offense last time here…San Diego 6-2 SU and ATS last year…Mike Tolbert leads all NLF RB’s in receptions (17)…Phil Rivers has completed 70% of his passes, but has thrown 4 picks…has completed at least 3 passes to 8 different players…SD -5 turnover margin

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -1

Falcons 5-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS vs T Bay since 2008…thru two games, Atlanta has allowed 800+ yards and 6+ yards per play…halftime adjustments?...Falcons have been outscored 35-10 in third quarter...Tampa Bay has outscored opponents 31-10 in second half…Buccs 77 passes, 35 runs…50% conversion rate on third down…T Bay just 5-12 SU at home since 2009…

Green Bay -3 ½ @ Chicago

Last five meetings decided by 7 points or fewer…Green Bay has not scored more than 21 points in last five games versus Bears…G Bay defense has allowed 952 yards in two games, incl 800 aerial yards…Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 7 times already…9 players have at least 2 receptions…Chicago has not scored in the fourth quarter so far this season…Bears have not scored or allowed a rushing touchdown…Jay Cutler has been sacked 11 times already…in 33 games as Bears QB, Cutler has been sacked 98 times!

NFL WEEK 2 SIX PACK

 

Published on 09/15/11

By Spike Measer 9/14/11

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8, 45): favored Lions in unfamiliar territory…Detroit has been the chalk just 12 times in last 80 games, (never more than 6 pts)…Chiefs had 11 drives of 5 plays or fewer last week…first 3 possessions; 10 plays, 20 yards, 3 punts…KC was minus 14 mins in TOP

J’ville @ NY Jets (-9, 39): Jags 47 rushes, just 24 passes last week…had four drives of at least 11 plays (all produced points)…were 9 of 18 on third down…plus 19 mins TOP…NYJ only 45 yds on 16 rushes vs ‘Boys…Jets did not commit a penalty last week…three of first four drives were 3 and out…

Oakland @ Buffalo (-3 ½, 43): Bills had 3 consecutive TD drives in second half…+14 mins TOP…7 of 14 on third down…had just two drives of more than six plays…Raiders had less than 300 yards of offense in Monday night win…15 penalties for 131 yards…registered 5 sacks…1-4 ATS last 5 trips to eastern time zone

Arizona @ Washington (-4, 44): first of four trips to eastern time zone for Cards (0-2 ATS last year)…scored on their opening drive vs Car…two 9-play drives in the second quarter came up empty (fumble, missed FG)…had back to back TD’s in fourth quarter to tie game and take lead… shutout Giants in second half…’Skins just 2-6 SU at home last year under Shanny…

Chicago @ New Orleans (-6 ½, 47): check Urlacher status…Bears D had 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, and 11 hits on Matt Ryan last Sunday…Cutler avg’d 9 yds per pass…Saints had six players with at least four

receptions…rolled up 477 yds against Pack…9 of 14 on third down…New Orl 7-8-1 ATS as home fav since 2009…

San Diego @ New England (-7, 52): Pats 16-0 SU, 10-6 ATS at home last two years…incl MNF 38 pt explosion, NEP have scored at least 31 points in 9 straight reg season games (since Wk 10, 2010)…8 players caught at least one pass…4 players had six or more…allowed 416 aerial yards to Miami…Chargers have not been a 7 point underdog since 2005 (Wk 15 at Indy)…SD is 5-2-1 ATS on road last two years…

Author’s Comment: Saluting the professionalism of the New England Patriots…you will note on the 99 yard scoring play from Brady to Welker on Monday night, never once did Wes raise his arm, or the ball, or high-step on his way to the end zone. Nor did he do a preconceived celebratory dance after he crossed the goal line. This is a result of the coaching of Bill Belichick and the professionalism that permeates the New England Patriots organization. From owner Robert Kraft, down thru the administration and support staff, and all the players and coaches, there is a code of conduct, decorum and behavior that exemplifies a professional business environment. The NFL is a business entity, and the players on the teams are professionals. They should behave as such. It is not coincidence that the most successful franchise over the last 11 years is New England. Since Kraft hired Belichick to coach the team starting with the 2000 season, the Patriots are 126-50 in regular season games. They are 14-5 in the post season, including 3-1 in their four Super Bowl appearances.

Todays Plays

TCU-13


Key Injuries
SMU WR Cole Beasley 31 catches, 376 yards in 4 games is doubtful with a knee injury.


TCU -RB ED Wesley-Shoulder-Probable Wesley has been injured all season but rushed for almost 1100 yards last season for the Horned Frogs.


This season has not exactly started out as planned for the SMU Mustangs. Starting QB Kyle Padron has lost his mojo and has been replaced by senior JJ McDermott. SMU is a pass first team and the loss of their leading receiver diminishes the already small chance SMU could do something they have only done once in 11 tries and that is beat TCU.


TCU has beaten a very good SMU team by a combined 80-38 the last two seasons and should get a huge spark on offense this week with the return of last season's leading rusher Ed Wesley.


There was supposed to be a learning curve this season for Sophomore QB Casey Pachall and some predicted that TCU would have to lean on a stingy defense until Pachall could get a good grasp of the offense. This has not been the case as Pachall has completed 69.2% of his passes this season with a 10-2 TD/INT ratio and a QB rating of 165!


TCU has already rushed for 874 yards in four games and the return of Wesley is only going to make the rushing attack that much better. The Horned Frogs are averaging 44 points per game thus far with a schedule that has included road games vs Baylor and Air Force. TCU has the better coach and the date change from Friday to Saturday only gives Gary Patterson more time to prepare for SMU. Without the services of their go-to-guy,  the Mustangs are going to have a tough time keeping up with this potent TCU offense. The Horned Frogs should win this game bu three scores

NFL fb key player injury update 9_22

 Arizona cardinal’s LaRod Stephens-Howling RB 9/11/2011 Hand Upgraded to probable

Cincinnati bengals Jordan Shipley WR 9/19/2011 Knee Out for season Player out indefinitely , Keith Rivers LB 8/26/2011 Wrist Expected to miss Player out indefinitely

Dallas Cowboys   Dez Bryant WR 9/16/2011 Thigh Upgraded to probable ,   Felix Jones RB 9/18/2011 Shoulder Upgraded to probable    Miles Austin WR 9/18/2011 Hamstring Doubtful   

Terence Newman DB 8/10/2011 Knee Upgraded to probable Player out indefinitely  Tony Romo QB 9/18/2011 ribs/lung Upgraded to probable .

Denver Broncos’s  Brandon Lloyd WR 9/14/2011 Groin Upgraded to probable,  D.J. Williams LB 8/28/2011 Elbow Upgraded to probable  Eddie Royal WR 9/18/2011 Leg Questionable ,  Elvis

Dumervil DE 9/15/2011 Shoulder Upgraded to probable,  Knowshon Moreno RB 9/14/2011 Hamstring Upgraded to probable.

Detroit Lions’s Brandon Pettigrew TE 9/19/2011 Undisclosed Upgraded to probable ,  Nick Fairley DT 9/7/2011 Foot Questionable .

Green Bay Packers ,Nick Collins DB 9/18/2011 Neck Expected to miss Player out  indefinitely.

Houston’s   Arian Foster RB 9/18/2011 Hamstring Questionable

Indianapolis Colts ,Gary Brackett LB 9/11/2011 Shoulder Questionable

Jacksonville Jaguars, Aaron Kampman DT 9/9/2011 Knee Questionable 1 game   Marcedes Lewis TE 9/14/2011 Calf Upgraded to probable .  Blaine Gabbert QB 9/21/2011 None Expected to start .

Kansas city’s,  Eric Berry DB 9/11/2011 ACL Out for season Player out indefinitely  ,Jamaal Charles RB 9/18/2011 Knee Out for season Player out indefinitely

New England’s, Dan Koppen C 9/12/2011 Ankle IR Player out indefinitely.

New Orleans Saints,  Chris Ivory RB 9/5/2011 Foot Expected to miss Player out indefinitely,  Marques Colston WR 9/9/2011 collarbone expected to miss.

New york giants  Mario Manningham WR 9/20/2011 Concussion Questionable .

Philadelphia’s   Michael Vick QB 9/19/2011 Head Upgraded to probable,

San Diego Chargers, Malcom Floyd WR 9/18/2011 Groin Questionable

San Francisco’s Braylon Edwards WR 9/18/2011 Knee downgraded to expected to miss Player out indefinitely,Michael Crabtree WR 9/11/2011 Foot Upgraded to probable,

Seattle’s, Sidney Rice WR 9/7/2011 Shoulder Upgraded to probable.

St louis’s Danny Amendola WR 9/11/2011 Dislocated Elbow Expected to miss Player out indefinitely 

Steven Jackson RB 9/11/2011 Quad Questionable,
Washinton’s .  LaRon Landry DB 9/7/2011 Hamstring Upgraded to probable

Updated College FB Injury Report 09/22

Boston College’s  Montel Harris RB 8/18/2011 Knee Upgraded to probable  Harris, the ACC leading rusher a season ago practiced for the second straight day Thursday.

Florida st.’s  Bert Reed WR 9/12/2011 Foot Upgraded to probabe,  E.J. Manuel Jr. QB 9/18/2011 Shoulder Questionable ,Willie Haulstead Jr. WR 8/29/2011 Concussion Questionable

Arkansas’s    Jarius Wright WR 9/12/2011 Knee Upgraded to probable to play his first game

Lsu’s Russell Shepard WR 7/26/2011 Disciplinary Upgraded to probable  to play his first game

Missouri’s DeVion Moore RB 9/9/2011 Leg Downgraded to doubtful .

New mexico st.’s  Andrew Manley QB 9/18/2011 Knee Downgraded to doubtful

Oregon state’s  James Rodgers WR 7/26/2011 Knee Upgraded to probable,Joe Halahuni TE 8/2/2011 Shoulder Expected to miss.  Jordan Bishop Jr. WR 9/21/2011 Ankle Questionable ,Jovan Stevenson RB 9/21/2011 Ankle Questionable ,  Malcolm Agnew RB 9/7/2011 Hamstring Downgraded to doubtful, Markus Wheaton Jr. WR 9/21/2011 Ribs Questionable

Tulsa’s   G.J. Kinne QB 9/18/2011 Knee Expected to miss 1 game

Utep’s      Nick Lamaison QB 9/15/2011 Shoulder downgraded to expected to miss 1 game

09/14/2011

Alabama: Juron Criner WR 9/6/2011 Appendix Questionable 1 game
Arkansas: Jake Bequette DE 9/12/2011 Hamstring Questionable 1 game Jarius Wright WR 9/12/2011 Knee Questionable 1 game Knile Davis RB 8/12/2011 Ankle Out for season Player out indefinitely Tyler Wilson QB 9/12/2011 Shoulder Probable 1 game
Boston College: Mark Spinney C 9/12/2011 Leg Doubtful 1 game Montel Harris RB 8/18/2011 Knee Questionable 1 game
BYU: Brandon Ogletree LB 9/9/2011 Concussion Questionable 1 game
Duke: Brian Moore Jr. C 9/8/2011 Arm Questionable 1 game Desmond Scott Jr. RB 9/6/2011 Leg Questionable 1 game
East Carolina: Justin Jones WR 8/28/2011 Knee Questionable 1 game Michael Bowman WR 9/1/2011 Suspension Questionable 1 game
Florida: Jeffery Demps RB 9/10/2011 Concussion Upgraded to probable 1 game
Florida State: Bert Reed WR 9/12/2011 Foot Upgraded to probable 1 game Willie Haulstead Jr. WR 8/29/2011 Concussion Downgraded to doubtful 1 game Xavier Rhodes CB 9/12/2011 Ankle Questionable 1 game
Georgia: Christian Robinson LB 9/12/2011 Foot Expected to miss 1 game
Kansas State: Bryce Brown RB 9/3/2011 Leg Upgraded to probable 1 game
Kentucky: Matt Smith C 9/8/2011 Undisclosed Questionable 1 game
Maryland:  Adrian Coxson WR 8/25/2011 Leg Questionable 1 game
Miami Florida:. Jacory Harris QB 8/20/2011 Suspension Upgraded to probable 1 game Harris is expected to be reinstated and will start vs Ohio St September 17. Olivier Vernon DL 8/20/2011 Suspension Expected to miss 6 game suspended first six games. Sean Spence LB 8/25/2011 Suspension Upgraded to probable 1 game
Miami Ohio:  Nick Harwell WR 9/9/2011 Suspension Questionable 1 game
Minnesota: Jerry Kill HC 9/10/2011 Seizure Upgraded to probable 1 game Kill has been evaluated by doctors and been cleared to coach Saturday vs Miami Ohio.
Mississippi: Brandon Bolden RB 9/3/2011 Leg Downgraded to doubtful 1 game
Missouri:  DeVion Moore RB 9/9/2011 Leg Downgraded to doubtful 1 game Jacquies Smith DL 9/5/2011 Elbow Downgraded to doubtful 1 game
Northwestern: Dan Persa QB 9/1/2011 Achilles very Questionable 1 game
Oklahoma: Kenny Stills WR 9/3/2011 Possible Suspension Upgraded to probable 1 game will start vs Florida St September 17 Travis Lewis LB 8/9/2011 Broken foot Expected to miss Player out indefinitely
Oregon State: James Rodgers WR 7/26/2011 Knee Questionable 1 game Joe Halahuni TE 8/2/2011 Shoulder Expected to miss 3 game Malcolm Agnew RB 9/7/2011 Hamstring Questionable 1 gameSyracuse Chandler Jones DE 9/10/2011 Leg Downgraded to doubtful 1 game
Texas Tech: Justin Keown C 8/26/2011 Knee Out indefinitely Player out indefinitely Tramain Swindall WR 9/9/2011 Knee Questionable 1 gameTulane Ryan Grant WR 9/9/2011 Groin Questionable 1 game
Vanderbilt: Barden TE 9/10/2011 Knee downgraded to expected to miss 1 game Washington state Jeff Tuel Jr. QB 9/3/2011 Shoulder downgraded to expected to miss 1 game

2011 NFL WIN TOTALS

By Spike Measer 8/28/11
AFC EAST

New England Patriots: 11 ½
This is the highest win total of any team posted by the odds makers for the 2011 season. New England will play three of their first four games in enemy territory, opening up at Miami, and traveling to Buffalo and Oakland after a home game against San Diego. They also have two trips to the Keystone State, playing at Pittsburgh at the end of October, and at Philadelphia to close November. The final four games of the regular season are against weaklings Washington, Denver, Miami and Buffalo. The offense is outstanding with Brady at the helm. The Pats scored more than 30 points in eleven games last season. With excellent contributors at RB, WR and TE, and another solid O-Line, they will likely win at least a dozen games. Play: OVER

New York Jets: 10
The New Yorkers could pile up 12 wins but still finish second in their division. The defense will be the calling card again this season. Last year the Jets stop unit held twelve opponents to 20 points or less. However, they also allowed a league-worst 22 plays of 20+ yards on third down! The offense is chock full of playmakers, with Antonio Holmes chief among them. The addition of Plax Burress will pay increasing dividends as the season wears on. With a solid front line, and a powerful Shonn Greene carrying the ball, Rex Ryan’s team hopes for continuing forward progress from Mark Sanchez. If that happens, this group will certainly find themselves in the post season...perhaps even a third straight AFC title game. Play: OVER

Miami Dolphins: 7 ½
The ‘Fins have finished 7-9 two years running. Of those fourteen victories, nine have come by 5 points or less. QB Chad Henne does not get his team in the end zone often enough. In 2010, Miami reached the 30 point mark just once in 16 games. Henne has thrown more INT’s than TD’s in each of his two years as the starter. But he’ll be back at the helm again this season, with results that are likely to be very similar. Although he has a new face in Reggie Bush behind him in the backfield, he and the Dolphins will no doubt miss Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. That tandem combined for 359 carries, 52 receptions and 8 touchdowns. Can HC Tony Sparano realistically expect Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas to replicate that production? Certainly not. Miami opens the season with two home games. Unfortunately for them, the opponents are New England and Houston. Then the Dolphins have trips to Cleveland and San Diego before their Week 5 Bye. Upon return, they travel to face the Jets on a Monday night. This squad could very easily be 0-5 in mid-October. They end the season with three divisional games, two of which are in the frigid December weather of Buffalo and New England. Chad Henne and Tony Sparano might both be out of a job before then. Play: UNDER

Buffalo Bills: 5 ½
The Bills continue to be a disaster. From the time the organization chose Rob Johnson over Doug Flutie to direct the offense, combined with poor coaching hires (Wade Phillips, Greg Williams, Mike Mularkey, Dick Jauron, Chan Gailey), this once very proud and successful franchise has been an embarrassment. Last season the Bills finished 4-12, although three of those losses were in OT. But this team reached the 20 point mark just four times in 16 games. Greater offensive production should not be expected. With Lee Evans gone, Steve Johnson is highly unlikely to produce another 1000 yard, 10 TD season. Gone from the defense is leading tackler Paul Poslusny. The November portion of the schedule is particularly brutal…three of the four games are consecutive road trips, and they face the Jets twice. After their home contest against Philadelphia on October 9<sup>th, the Bills will play only one other game in Orchard Park until December. (they play Washington in Toronto Oct 30th). The final portion of the 2011 slate features two road trips that figure to be wipeouts; at San Diego Dec 11th, and at New England Jan 1st. Play: UNDER

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10 ½
With three of their first four games on the road, the Steelers must survive an early test, much like they did last year without the services of Ben Roesthlisberger. This time around, Big Ben will be there from the beginning. That is a big deal when the first game is at arch rival Baltimore. After a near "gimme" at home against Seattle, Pittsburgh will head to Indianapolis, and then Houston. The Bye week comes very late (Week 11), but that will help them rest and recharge for the final leg of the regular season, and subsequent post season. The final six games have them facing Cleveland twice, along with Cincinnati, Kansas City, St Louis and San Francisco. At worst, that looks like a 4-2 closing stretch. The defense remains the standard for the league. The offense should be solid with a powerful rushing attack and some explosive receivers. (Antonio Brown is on the rise). Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the loop, and this organization is laden with professionalism throughout. Play: OVER

Baltimore Ravens: 10 ½
The window of opportunity is closing rapidly on the defense. The superb Ray Lewis is 36 years old. The amazing Ed Reed will be 33 on opening day. While still a very stingy unit (Baltimore allowed only 5 opponents to surpass the 17 point mark last year), they can’t be counted on to shoulder the burden to the same degree. Also of note; defensive coordinator Greg Mattison is gone, replaced by Chuck Pagano. The stoppers will face some formidable QB’s over the course of the season, including Ben Roethlisberger and Colt McCoy twice each, as well as Mark Sanchez, Peyton Manning and Phil Rivers. But John Harbaugh’s team has a very capable signal caller of their own in Joe Flacco. This guy has improved his TD/INT ratio each of the last two seasons. He recorded 25 scoring strikes against 10 picks in 2011. With Anquan Boldin more familiar with the offense, the addition of Lee Evans, and the continued reliability of workhorse Ray Rice, OC Cam Cameron should be dialing up plenty of chain-moving plays that eventually lead to pay dirt. The Bye comes very early (Week 5), so that means 12 consecutive battles beginning October 9th, including Thursday and Saturday contests. Play: OVER

Cleveland Browns: 6 ½
The Browns were 5-11 last year, including wins over New England and New Orleans. They were 3-7 in games decided by 7 points or less. Colt McCoy is a winner going back to his high school days. He will thrive under the direction of new head coach Pat Shurmur. TE Evan Moore will be an integral part of the offense, and rookie WR Greg Little will emerge quickly as a deep threat. Peyton Hillis was a powerful back last season despite slowing a bit in the second half. Montario Hardesty should prove to be an excellent complement in the rushing attack. The Browns have an underrated offensive line featuring LT Joe Thomas, who just signed a 7-year, $84 million dollar contract. On the other side of the ball, LB’s D’Qwell Jackson and Scott Fujita will spearhead the attack. The most difficult stretch for Cleveland will be the final five games of the season. They play the Ravens and Steelers twice each, including a trip to Pittsburgh four days after a home tilt against Baltimore. Play: OVER

Cincinnati Bengals: 5 ½
The Bengals problems start at the very top with owner Mike Brown. He presides over a business that continues to make extremely poor personnel decisions. That includes head coach Marvin Lewis. Since this man took charge in 2003, Cincinnati is 60-67-1 straight up (47%). Remove the two playoff years (2005, 11-5 and 2009, 10-6), the record is 39-56 (41%). Why is he still in charge? He won’t be after this campaign. The Bengals do not have a capable QB, they have regressed at WR, and they are welcoming a new offensive coordinator. How will they put points on the board? Two of last year’s four wins came when they scored less than 20 points. They may not reach double digit scoring in more than half their games. Five of their last eight contests are against division opponents. If you listen carefully, you can hear Roger Goodell saying "Cincinnati is on the clock." Play: UNDER

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans: 8 ½
If the Texans don’t win the division this season, Gary Kubiak should be and will be shown the door. This team is absolutely loaded on offense. Houston has one of the best front lines in the league, a bevy of running backs, a dominant wide receiver, an outstanding tight end, and a quarterback with 53 TD passes over the last two seasons. The defense will receive an immediate lift from new coordinator Wade Phillips. Rookie J J Watt is a player, and the addition of CB Johnathan Joseph is an instant upgrade to a porous secondary. LB Brooks Reed, another promising rookie, will join steady tacklers DeMeco Ryans and Bryan Cushing. The AFC South is down this season, and this is an enormous opportunity for Houston to make their move. There are difficult road games at New Orleans and Baltimore. The toughest home games are against Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Despite some formidable tests, this club should be able to reach double digit wins for the first time in their history. Play: OVER

Indianapolis Colts: 9 ½
Even if Peyton Manning was absolutely 100% healthy, this team is in decline. If Peyton does miss time, the Colts are in serious trouble. If he plays in Week 1, having ZERO practice time, how effective will he be? The offensive line is not nearly as stout as it used to be, and they haven’t been an effective running team since the early days of Edge James. Assistant coaches Tom Moore and Howard Mudd, staples of the Manning era, have moved on to contribute to other teams. The defense allowed at least 24 points in each of the last seven regular season games of 2010. They lost dependable LB Clint Session, and DC Larry Coyer is still searching for the appropriate scheme to match his talent. The Colts did sign some FA’s to help on the stop side; Tommie Harris, Jamal Anderson, and Ernie Sims, all former first round draft picks. But stellar defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have both reached the age of 30, so some decline in their level of play can be expected. Road trips to New Orleans, New England and Baltimore are daunting, and home games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta look menacing as well.
In my opinion, the Indianapolis Colts, especially owner Jim Irsay and GM Bill Polian, made an egregious error when they decided to throw away the final two games of the 2009 regular season. Indy was 14-0, and the decision was made to rest players for the playoff run. The ripple effect of that decision is still being felt today. The players certainly wanted to go for the undefeated season, but Polian nixed the idea, and the chemistry in this organization has never been the same. The Colts should be recognized and lauded for their incredible run of nine consecutive seasons with at least 10 victories. From 2003 thru 2009 the Colts produced at least 12 wins! Those seven seasons show an amazing 89-23 won-loss record! But that era has passed. The Colts no longer rule the AFC South. Not only will they not win their division, they won’t even make the playoffs! Play: UNDER

Jacksonville Jaguars: 6 ½
Jack Del Rio remains at the top spot in the J’ville coaching hierarchy, but I don’t know why. Under his "guidance" since 2003, the Jags have built a record of 65-63. They have only three winning seasons during that time frame, have never won the division, and have participated in only three post season games. The 2011 slate has them visiting the Jets, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. They get New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego at home, but they are inferior to all of those teams. The Jaguars also play back to back road games on three occasions. This team continues to suffer from below average play at quarterback. David Garrard isn’t capable of carrying a team, which is a hallmark of the elite signal callers. MJD remains a threat when healthy, but he has seen 700 touches the last two seasons, and wear and tear started taking a toll last year when he missed two games. There should be improvement on defense, where DT’s Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu will stir memories of Stroud and Henderson. Paul Posluszny improves the linebackers, and Dawan Landry helps the back four. Mediocrity reigns in Jacksonville. Play: NONE

Tennessee Titans 6 ½:
Mike Munchak takes over the team, with new assistants and numerous roster problems. Their best player is involved in a bitter contract dispute. The leading receiver is on the verge of suspension by the league. The new quarterback is Matt Hasselbeck. The 2010 leader in tackles is gone. So is the leading sacker. The schedule has them dealing with teams from the AFC North and NFC South. The Titans will be underdogs in at least twelve games this season. It is important to note that new HC Munchak has never been a head coach or even a coordinator in the NFL. History shows us that lack of experience does not bode well for brand new sideline directors in this league. (Mike Tice in Minnesota, Rod Marinelli in Detroit, Mike Singletary in SF). No miracle in Music City this year. Play: UNDER

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers: 10
Extremely poor special teams play cost the Chargers a post season berth in 2010. They have addressed that with the hiring of ST coach Richard Bisaccia. However, Norv Turner is still the HC, which is a hindrance to success in my opinion. (I still don’t understand why Marty Schottenheimer was dismissed after a 14-2 season in 2006). Despite his presence, this is one of the most talented teams in the league, and should easily win the division. Phil Rivers is establishing himself as an elite quarterback. Gates and Jackson are matchup problems for any defense. Mike Tolbert is emerging as a powerful runner. The offensive line is a top-tier unit. The kicking game is solid. The defense will improve with first rounder Corey Liuget rushing from the edge. Eric Weddle leads a very good secondary. GM A J Smith has assembled some outstanding talent since he took over in 2003, but his ego prevented him from working out a deal with Vincent Jackson last season, and that turned out to be a major problem. The contentious negotiations with Marcus McNeil continued into the season. Those situations have been resolved, and the Chargers are poised to make a deep run into the playoffs. The first half of the season they must endure visits to the east coast to face the Patriots and Jets. Other than a mid-November trip to Chicago, they don’t play any cold weather games. Green Bay and Baltimore are tough home games, but both are certainly winnable. The overall schedule appears to be quite favorable.
These could indeed be the San Diego SUPER Chargers. Play: OVER

Kansas City Chiefs: 7 ½:
The departure of OC Charlie Weis is already apparent. The Chiefs offense was abysmal in pre season. But the Kansas City offensive prowess wasn’t all that formidable with him calling the shots either. KC scored 21 points or fewer in half their games in 2010. Thomas Jones is an excellent veteran presence, and has enough tread left to be a significant contributor again this year (900 yds, 6 TD in 2010). Jamal Charles is the rising star in the rushing attack, but a repeat of his 1400+ yards from last season will be tough to replicate. Dwayne Bowe enjoyed a career year in 2010 (15 TD’s), and the guess here is that DB will haul in fewer than 10 scores this season. Matt Cassel was solid with 27 scoring strikes and only 7 picks, but he completed just 58% of his passes. On the other side of the ball there are underrated playmakers Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Tamba Hali and Tyson Jackson. The schedule is much more difficult than last year, including three of the first five games in enemy territory (Detroit, SD, Indy). The Chiefs must face New England, Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Green Bay in a 27-day span from mid-November thru mid-December. Todd Haley will find his second year at the helm much more frustrating…and it won’t include a playoff berth. Play: NONE

Oakland Raiders: 7
The Silver & Black has been black and blue since they got crushed in the Super Bowl by Tampa Bay in January 2003. In the eight seasons since then, the Raiders have compiled a record of 37-91. The 8-8 mark from last year was the first time Oakland won more than 5 games since that SB run. The Raiders did sweep their divisional opponents last season, but defeated only St Louis and Seattle outside the AFC West. Hue Jackson slides into the head coaching role, with two new coordinators supporting him. Oakland loses their best player on each side of the ball. TE Zach Miller (60/685/5) and CB Nnamdi Asomugha will be sorely missed. The inexperienced O-Line will struggle to open running lanes for Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Not surprisingly, the Raiders led the league in penalties (165) and penalty yards (1200+) again last season. That is the only consistent thing we can count on from this club. They catch the Jets and Patriots at the "Black Hole", but they are highly unlikely to win either of those games. They also face the NFC North, travel to Houston, and they have two trips to the eastern time zone. Oakland goes back to the basement in 2011. Play: UNDER

Denver Broncos: 5 ½
The Broncos are probably elated they kept Kyle Orton as their starting quarterback. He is a capable NFL signal caller, and displayed his ample arm last season with 3600 yards passing and a 20/9 TD/INT ratio. The supporting cast was weak, and the leadership on the sideline (Josh McDaniel) lacked competency. But new HC John Fox is running the show, and he brings plenty of ability and experience to the most important non-playing position on the team. Fox is a defensive minded guy, and draft picks Von Miller and Rahim Moore will excel under his tutelage. Elvis Dumervil is healthy, and that is a very big deal for the entire team. The early slate is quite manageable, with home games against Oakland and Cincinnati to open the season. It’s a trip to Tennessee after that, so the Broncos quite possibly could be 3-0 at the end of September. They close the season with three of four at home, and a trip to Buffalo mixed in. A 3-1 stretch run is certainly attainable. Denver will improve as the season wears on, as the cumulative effect of Fox manifests on the field. Although they can’t be expected to reach the .500 mark, six or seven wins is clearly possible. Play: OVER</sup>

NFL WEEK 1

SHOWCASE GAME OF THE WEEK

PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -3 / 36

By Spike Measer 9/7/11

This is one of eight divisional games here in the opening week of the 2011 NFL regular season. Although all contests between teams in the same division carry a little extra weight, this one is clearly worthy of the spotlight. It is quite evident that there is much animosity between these two franchises. Each team wants to beat this particular opponent more than any other on their schedule. And the best part is we get to see them go at it at least twice each season. I expect both of these clubs to make the post season, setting up a potential third matchup. Evidently the odds maker expects these two will make a playoff appearance as well. The season win total for each team is 10 ½. Only New England has a higher posted total in the AFC.

Let’s examine one key player from each team, and their individual performances over the last three seasons. Joe Flacco has faced the Pittsburgh Steelers eight times since he came into the league in 2008, including twice in the playoffs. He and the Ravens are 2-6 SU in those battles, and 2-5-1 ATS. Against the Dick LeBeau designed “Blitzburgh” defense, Flacco has produced 7 TD’s against 8 interceptions. He has completed just 53% of his throws against the Steelers stoppers. Credit Delaware Joe with leading his team to victory in Pittsburgh last season (Wk 4), but we must also remember that was the Steelers minus Ben Roethlisberger.

Now let’s direct our attention to Pittsburgh’s workhorse running back Rashard Mendenhall. Mendy has not been able to crack the 100 yard barrier against the stout Baltimore D, but that rarely happens, no matter who the ball carrier is. Twice in six games against Baltimore, Mendenhall was given more than 20 carries; 24-95 Wk 12, ’09 and 25-79 Wk 4, 2010. Pittsburgh lost both games. In notching four victories with Mendenhall playing, the grinding runner totaled just 157 yards on 65 touches, a poor 2.4 ypc. It will be interesting to see how these two combatants grade out after the September 11^th game at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

Keep in mind the Ravens are 19-5 SU at home the last three seasons. Two of those losses came at the hands of this week’s opponent. Baltimore is 2-6 ATS as a home favorite in AFC North contests with Flacco at the helm. The Steelers are 3-0 ATS as an away dog within the division since 2008. Five of the last six meetings involving these two clubs have been three-point ball games. The other was a four-point margin.

Get ready for ferocious hitting, spectacular playmaking and outstanding overall entertainment when Pittsburgh plays Baltimore on Sunday at 1 pm eastern time. And take the Steelers plus the points.