NFL WEEK 8

By Spike Measer 10/26/11
Arizona @ Baltimore (-13 ½)
Second of four trips to eastern time zone for Cardinals (lost 23-22 at
Wash as 3 ½ pt dog Week 2)…Arizona is 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS…Cards have
yet to reach 400 yard mark in a game this season…RB Beanie Wells
questionable for this game…Alfosno Smith may start…Kevin Kolb:
58% completions, 7 TD, 7 INT…Kolb faced Balt (for one half) in 2008,
throwing 2 picks, and hitting 10 of 23 for 73 yards (first meaningful
action as a pro)…Baltimore is 4-2 SU & ATS…Ravens only team allowing
less than 30% third down conversions…Joe Flacco: 52% completions,
8 TD, 5 INT…Ray Rice averaging 20 touches per game, but had only 13
in loss at J’ville Monday night…Ravens had 13 possessions vs Jags, 9 of
which were 3 and out…Baltimore had only 145 yards of offense vs Jax
Miami @ NY Giants (-10)
Miami 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS…Dolphins 3-9 ATS vs NFC since 2008 (Sparano)
…Miami averaging 270 yards of offense last three games…’Fins are
-56 in point differential (third worst in NFL)…in 54 regular season
games under Sparano, Dolphins have scored 17 points or fewer 27
times…NYG coming off bye…Giants 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS…RB Jacobs and
DL Tuck expected to return…G-Men have allowed four of six opponents
to score at least 24 points…Big Blue needs to take advantage of this
opponent…next six games are against New England, SF, Philly, New
Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas, four of which are on the road
Washington @ Buffalo (-6)
‘Skins will be without Tim Hightower, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley…OL
also very banged up…Wash has produced more than 350 yards of
offense only twice in six games…Redskins have 21 sacks shared among
12 players…defense allowing 30% third down conversions (second in
NFL)…Buffalo coming off bye…4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS…Buffalo is second in
NFL in turnover margin (+9)…Bills have registered just four sacks thru
six games…Buff D in bottom ten in league in yards per game and points
per game allowed…Buffalo offense in top ten in league in yards per
game and points per game…RB Fred Jackson touches ball on 35% of
Bills offensive snaps…this is just the third time Buffalo has been more
than a 4 point favorite in the last 39 games (1-2 ATS)
Cleveland @ San Francisco (-9 ½)
Cleveland 3-3 SU, 1-3-2 ATS this season…Browns 2-5-2 ATS vs NFC
since 2009…have gained less than 300 yards on offense in five of six
games…have scored 17 points or fewer in five of six games…Browns
offense in top ten in league in third down conversions, but bottom
ten in league in yards and points per game…San Fran is 5-1 SU, 5-0-
1 ATS…’Niners have scored at least 24 points in five of six games, but
have generated less than 300 yards of offense three times…Alex Smith
8 TD, 2 INT…SF defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet this
season…including this week, San Francisco has ten games remaining;
only three of those games are against teams that currently have a
winning record
New England (-3) @ Pittsburgh
Patriots 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS…won at Pittsburgh Wk 10 last season 39-26 as
5 point underdog…both Brady and Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards
in the game…last week’s 20-16 win over Dallas was the first time New
England failed to reach the 30 point mark in a regular season game
since they faced the Steelers last season…four players have at least 26
receptions and 4 touchdowns…Pittsburgh 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS…Steelers five
victories have come against teams with a combined record of 8-24...Pitt
has not defeated a team with a winning record in a regular season
game since Week 13 of the 2010 season (beat Balt 13-10)…Steelers
defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry…Pittsburgh has won three straight
games, but faces New England this week and Baltimore next week
(both at home)
Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3 ½)
Cowboys have gained at least 375 yards on offense in every game this
season…prior to last week’s 27 point win over St Louis, Cowboys were
involved in eleven straight games decided by 7 points or less…’Boys are
5-0 ATS vs Eagles in last five meetings (incl ’09 playoff game)…Dallas
6-4-1 ATS last eleven road trips…Philadelphia coming off bye…Eagles
have not won a home game since Week 13 of 2010 season (incl 2010
playoff loss to G Bay)…Philly is 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS in last eleven as host
(incl playoffs)…Eagles have rolled up over 400 yards of offense in five
of six games this season, yet are just 2-4 both SU & ATS…Mike Vick
averaging more yards per carry (8.3) than yards per pass (7.9)…four of
next six Philly games are stand-alone night games on national TV

**VORP**

Utah backup QB Jon Hays will start Saturday in place of injured Jordan Wynn.

Many of the questions I get from clients that are new to the line/injury service revolve around how to use the injury information to know what games they should bet. I always tell them that there are several factors in this decision, many of which are more opinion based than fact based but that the easiest thing to do is to use an MLB term in VORP which stands for Value Over Replacement Player. I thought this game Saturday was a good example of what the oddsmakers are making Jordan Wynns VORP.

If we take a look at last week's game Utah was a 10-point favorite at home over a Washington team that had been very good on offense all season but not very good on defense. Washington had scored 30, 40, and 31 points in three home games and an impressive 38 points on the road at Nebraska. Yet they were 10-point underdogs to Utah. Using that game as a basis to help set this week's line I think it would be fair to assume that if Jordan Wynn was healthy the Arizona St/Utah game likely would have fallen somewhere between pk and Utah-1. Thus the oddsmakers are saying that Jordan Wynn has a VORP of 4.5 to 5.5 points.

Hays who will start Satruday, was 10-16 for 156 yards with a TD and an INT in 2+ quarters vs Washington last week. On the contrary Jordan Wynn was 12-17 for 149 yards with a TD and an INT. While he is misknown as a mobile QB Wynn has rushed for negative yards in 3-of-4 games this season and the only game he had a positive rushing mark was 9/17 vs BYU when he rushed 1 time for 4 yards.

Yet despite Wynn's average numbers this season and throughout his career this line opened around Arizona St -3 and had climbed as high as Arizona St -4 1/2 at some books before checking back to and settling at -3 1/2.

I thought this was a good example of the general public possibly overreacting to the loss of a starting QB and his worth to his team in a particular game and the "sharps" coming in behind them and scooping up the inflated numbers.

Anyway after speaking to this client this morning about VORP, I thought this game had some really good examples of a lot of things that both players and bookmakers have to be aware of when evaluating a situation.  I thought I would share some of my thoughts on this game with you all.

As always I will send breaking injury information emails when possible today. Have a great weekend everybody!