Texas AM Cyrus Gray

Texas A&M senior running Cyrus Gray, who has been out with a stress fracture in his left shoulder, is back on the practice field in no-contact mode. Interim head coach Tim DeRuyter said "I anticipate we're going to have him play" against Northwestern in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.


This is probably the best news Aggie fans have heard in a long time considering all the disappointing losses they've endured this season. It's not official, but it looks like Gray will be suiting up on Dec. 31.

NFL Week 9 Six Pack

By Spike Measer 11/2/11

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-8)

Bucs coming off bye week after losing in London to Bears Oct 23…T Bay is 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS…TB has not scored more than 26 points in a game this season…and has scored more than 26 points in a game only 13 times in their last 87 games dating back to 2006 season!...have split season series with New Orleans each of the last three seasons (beat Saints 26-20 Oct 16 as 6 ½ pt dog)…5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS…Saints had less than 300 yards of offense in loss at St Louis last week…only second time in eight games they gained less than 450 yards…Saints 17-19-1 as home favorite since Brees joined club in 2006…New Orleans is 5-0 SU & ATS following a loss dating back to Wk 5 of 2010 season  

NY Jets @ Buffalo (-1 ½)

New York 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS…Jets 3-1 SU & ATS versus Bills with Sanchez at helm…Jets allowed more than 20 points in a game only four times in the 2010 season…have allowed more than 20 points five times thru seven games already this season…Jets coming off bye…0-2 SU & ATS off bye week under Rex…Buffalo 5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS…Bills had accumulated just 4 sacks thru first six games, registered 9 last week against Washington…Buffalo has scored at least 31 points in four of six games…Bills defensive unit leads NFL with 14 interceptions…Buffalo will play the Jets twice this month (11/6, 11/27)

Denver @ Oakland (-8)

Denver 2-5 SU & ATS this season…in last four games versus Oakland, Broncos are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS…have not defeated Oakland since Week 3 of 2009 season…will play only one home game this month (Thurs 11/17)…Denver has gained less than 320 yards in six of seven games…Broncos defense allowing 68% completions, 14 aerial TD’s…Oakland 7-1 SU & ATS last eight divisional games…Raiders 3-1 SU & ATS at home this season…playing third consecutive home game, although had bye last week…Raiders have committed at least 7 penalties in six of seven games…have drawn double digit flags three times

NY Giants @ New England (-8)

Big Blue 5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS…after playing just one road game in the month of October, Giants will be the visitor in three of four November games…G-Men’s 5 wins have come against teams with combined record of 7-28…New Yorkers leading in NFL sacks with 26…Giants allowing 4.7 yards per carry…Eli’s 13 TD strikes have been distributed among seven players…NEP 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS…off a loss New England is 11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS since 2008 (lost last week at Pitt)…Pats held under 20 points last week, first time since Week 9 for 2010 season…top four rushers for Pats all averaging over 4 yards per carry…Tom Brady has thrown at least 2 touchdown passes in 19 of his last 24 games (incl ’10) playoff)…four receivers have at least 4 TD grabs

Green Bay (-6) @ San Diego

Packers 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS…Green bay has scored at least 24 points in every game this season…Aaron Rodgers has thrown at least 3 TD passes in 8 of his last 11 games (incl 2010 post season)…Rodgers 107 TD passes, 35 interceptions for career, a better than 3:1 ratio…San Diego 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS…Chargers have yet to reach 30 point mark in a game this season (did it in half their games last season)…SD is plus 8 mins in TOP, but minus 5 in turnover margin…Bolts play five of next seven games at home (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS last 11 at Qualcomm)…Phil Rivers has thrown two picks in 5 of 7 games this season…has thrown for at least 250 yards in 18 of last 23 games…SD has 7 players with at least 11 receptions…top two pass catchers (number of receptions) are RB’s (Tolbert & Mathews)

Chicago @ Philadelphia (-7 ½)

This is fifth straight season these two teams have met (last 3 at Soldier Field)…previous four decided by 5 points or less…Eagles have been favorite each time (1-3 SU & ATS)…Chicago coming off bye week…Bears are 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS…Chicago stop unit allowing 65% completions, 5.2 yards per carry…Philly 3-4 SU & ATS…Mike Vick averaging 8.1 yards per carry and per pass…five players have at least 20 receptions…Eagles +7 mins in TOP…Philly playing second of three straight at home…Philadelphia has scored at least 24 points in 11 of last 16 regular season games…Eagles 4-6 ATS last 10 as home favorite

NFL WEEK 8

By Spike Measer 10/26/11
Arizona @ Baltimore (-13 ½)
Second of four trips to eastern time zone for Cardinals (lost 23-22 at
Wash as 3 ½ pt dog Week 2)…Arizona is 1-5 SU, 1-4-1 ATS…Cards have
yet to reach 400 yard mark in a game this season…RB Beanie Wells
questionable for this game…Alfosno Smith may start…Kevin Kolb:
58% completions, 7 TD, 7 INT…Kolb faced Balt (for one half) in 2008,
throwing 2 picks, and hitting 10 of 23 for 73 yards (first meaningful
action as a pro)…Baltimore is 4-2 SU & ATS…Ravens only team allowing
less than 30% third down conversions…Joe Flacco: 52% completions,
8 TD, 5 INT…Ray Rice averaging 20 touches per game, but had only 13
in loss at J’ville Monday night…Ravens had 13 possessions vs Jags, 9 of
which were 3 and out…Baltimore had only 145 yards of offense vs Jax
Miami @ NY Giants (-10)
Miami 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS…Dolphins 3-9 ATS vs NFC since 2008 (Sparano)
…Miami averaging 270 yards of offense last three games…’Fins are
-56 in point differential (third worst in NFL)…in 54 regular season
games under Sparano, Dolphins have scored 17 points or fewer 27
times…NYG coming off bye…Giants 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS…RB Jacobs and
DL Tuck expected to return…G-Men have allowed four of six opponents
to score at least 24 points…Big Blue needs to take advantage of this
opponent…next six games are against New England, SF, Philly, New
Orleans, Green Bay, and Dallas, four of which are on the road
Washington @ Buffalo (-6)
‘Skins will be without Tim Hightower, Santana Moss, Chris Cooley…OL
also very banged up…Wash has produced more than 350 yards of
offense only twice in six games…Redskins have 21 sacks shared among
12 players…defense allowing 30% third down conversions (second in
NFL)…Buffalo coming off bye…4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS…Buffalo is second in
NFL in turnover margin (+9)…Bills have registered just four sacks thru
six games…Buff D in bottom ten in league in yards per game and points
per game allowed…Buffalo offense in top ten in league in yards per
game and points per game…RB Fred Jackson touches ball on 35% of
Bills offensive snaps…this is just the third time Buffalo has been more
than a 4 point favorite in the last 39 games (1-2 ATS)
Cleveland @ San Francisco (-9 ½)
Cleveland 3-3 SU, 1-3-2 ATS this season…Browns 2-5-2 ATS vs NFC
since 2009…have gained less than 300 yards on offense in five of six
games…have scored 17 points or fewer in five of six games…Browns
offense in top ten in league in third down conversions, but bottom
ten in league in yards and points per game…San Fran is 5-1 SU, 5-0-
1 ATS…’Niners have scored at least 24 points in five of six games, but
have generated less than 300 yards of offense three times…Alex Smith
8 TD, 2 INT…SF defense has not allowed a rushing touchdown yet this
season…including this week, San Francisco has ten games remaining;
only three of those games are against teams that currently have a
winning record
New England (-3) @ Pittsburgh
Patriots 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS…won at Pittsburgh Wk 10 last season 39-26 as
5 point underdog…both Brady and Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards
in the game…last week’s 20-16 win over Dallas was the first time New
England failed to reach the 30 point mark in a regular season game
since they faced the Steelers last season…four players have at least 26
receptions and 4 touchdowns…Pittsburgh 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS…Steelers five
victories have come against teams with a combined record of 8-24...Pitt
has not defeated a team with a winning record in a regular season
game since Week 13 of the 2010 season (beat Balt 13-10)…Steelers
defense allowing 4.5 yards per carry…Pittsburgh has won three straight
games, but faces New England this week and Baltimore next week
(both at home)
Dallas @ Philadelphia (-3 ½)
Cowboys have gained at least 375 yards on offense in every game this
season…prior to last week’s 27 point win over St Louis, Cowboys were
involved in eleven straight games decided by 7 points or less…’Boys are
5-0 ATS vs Eagles in last five meetings (incl ’09 playoff game)…Dallas
6-4-1 ATS last eleven road trips…Philadelphia coming off bye…Eagles
have not won a home game since Week 13 of 2010 season (incl 2010
playoff loss to G Bay)…Philly is 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS in last eleven as host
(incl playoffs)…Eagles have rolled up over 400 yards of offense in five
of six games this season, yet are just 2-4 both SU & ATS…Mike Vick
averaging more yards per carry (8.3) than yards per pass (7.9)…four of
next six Philly games are stand-alone night games on national TV

**VORP**

Utah backup QB Jon Hays will start Saturday in place of injured Jordan Wynn.

Many of the questions I get from clients that are new to the line/injury service revolve around how to use the injury information to know what games they should bet. I always tell them that there are several factors in this decision, many of which are more opinion based than fact based but that the easiest thing to do is to use an MLB term in VORP which stands for Value Over Replacement Player. I thought this game Saturday was a good example of what the oddsmakers are making Jordan Wynns VORP.

If we take a look at last week's game Utah was a 10-point favorite at home over a Washington team that had been very good on offense all season but not very good on defense. Washington had scored 30, 40, and 31 points in three home games and an impressive 38 points on the road at Nebraska. Yet they were 10-point underdogs to Utah. Using that game as a basis to help set this week's line I think it would be fair to assume that if Jordan Wynn was healthy the Arizona St/Utah game likely would have fallen somewhere between pk and Utah-1. Thus the oddsmakers are saying that Jordan Wynn has a VORP of 4.5 to 5.5 points.

Hays who will start Satruday, was 10-16 for 156 yards with a TD and an INT in 2+ quarters vs Washington last week. On the contrary Jordan Wynn was 12-17 for 149 yards with a TD and an INT. While he is misknown as a mobile QB Wynn has rushed for negative yards in 3-of-4 games this season and the only game he had a positive rushing mark was 9/17 vs BYU when he rushed 1 time for 4 yards.

Yet despite Wynn's average numbers this season and throughout his career this line opened around Arizona St -3 and had climbed as high as Arizona St -4 1/2 at some books before checking back to and settling at -3 1/2.

I thought this was a good example of the general public possibly overreacting to the loss of a starting QB and his worth to his team in a particular game and the "sharps" coming in behind them and scooping up the inflated numbers.

Anyway after speaking to this client this morning about VORP, I thought this game had some really good examples of a lot of things that both players and bookmakers have to be aware of when evaluating a situation.  I thought I would share some of my thoughts on this game with you all.

As always I will send breaking injury information emails when possible today. Have a great weekend everybody!

NFL WEEK 4 Six Pack

Published on 09/29/11

By Spike Measer 9/28/11

Detroit @ Dallas -2

Last year it was Shaun Hill vs John Kitna when Dallas won 35-19 as 6 point home favorites…Romo has been sacked 6 times already, but Cowboys D has registered 13 on opposing QB’s (Ware and Spencer have combined for 8)…five receivers have at least 7 catches…Lions averaging less than 3 yards per carry, allowing 5.0…four players with at least 14 receptions, averaging 11+ yards per catch…Detroit has now won seven consecutibe regular season games dating back to Week 14 2010

New Orleans -7 @ Jacksonville

Saints averaging just under 100 yards per game rushing…New Orleans has five players with at least 10 receptions and one TD…Saints have scored at least 30 points in five of last seven road games…D has just one pick thru three games…Jacksonville has less than 800 yards of offense thru three games…Jags are -33 in point differential…Jax 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS vs non-conference opponents in 2010…4-6 ATS as home dog since 2007

Pittsburgh @ Houston -4

Steelers 7-2 ATS as away dog since 2008…17-17-2 ATS vs AFC opponents since ’08…12-11-1 ATS in all road games since ’08…Pitt is +450 offensive yards thru three games…Steelers averaging just 3.3 yards per carry…five players are averaging more than 14 yards per reception… Houston has identical 17-17-2 ATS record vs conference opponents since 2008…8-8-3 as home favorite in same span…Texans have scored at least 27 points in nine of their last 19 regular season games…35% of Matt Schaub’s completions have gone to Andre Johnson…Houston is +7 minutes in TOP…Texans D allowing 4.8 yards per rush

Miami @ San Diego -7 ½

Miami has won eight of nine games in this series dating back to 1999…Dolphins 16-5 ATS as road dog since 2008…eight of last nineteen regular season games decided by 5 points or less…’Fins have allowed just one rushing TD, but eight passing scores thru three games…Chargers are 9-6-1 ATS as home favorite since 2009 (SD has been a home dog just once in the last 6 seasons)…SD is 18-18-1 ATS vs AFC opponents since 2008…Phil Rivers 68% completions, but only 4 TD’s against 6 INT’s…RB Mike Tolbert continues to lead team in receptions…injury note: TE Antonio Gates could miss extended time with nagging foot injury

New England -4 @ Oakland

Patriots have scored 30+ points in eleven consecutive regular season games…13-9-2 ATS vs AFC opposition since 2009…4-6-1 ATS as road favorite since 2009…New England has outscored their opponent 55-24 in first half this season…Oakland, 2-1 SU so far, has won more than five regular season games just once since their Super Bowl season of 2002 (8-8 in 2010)…ten players have at least 2 receptions (RB McFadden leads with 11)…Raiders have registered ten sacks while allowing only two…Oakland has scored at least 28 points in six of their last eight regular season games…have outscored the opposition 54-23 in the first half this season

NY Jets @ Baltimore -3 ½

Ravens have held opposition under the 20 point mark in 13 of their last 19 regular season games…Baltimore has won five straight in this series dating back to 2000…Ravens 21-16-1 ATS vs AFC since 2008 (Joe Flacco rookie season)…14-7-1 ATS as home favorite over same span…Baltimore won 10-9 last year as one point road dog in season opening MNF contest…Jets 19-16 ATS since 2009 (Ryan/Sanchez initial seasons)…16-10 ATS vs AFC over same period…NYJ averaging only 3.4 yards per rush, while allowing 4.8…have allowed five rushing touchdowns thru three games (11 all of last year)

NFL WEEK 3 Six Pack

 

Published on 09/22/11

By Spike Measer 9/21/11

New England -9 @ Buffalo

Bill Belichick 20-3 SU all-time vs Buffalo…Tom Brady 17-1 vs Bills (39 TD’s, 12 INT’s)…Buffalo has not defeated the Patriots since Week 1 of the 2003 season…Buffalo 0-4-1 ATS last 5 games in Orchard Park…Both Brady and Fitzpatrick have thrown 7 TD’s and just 1 pick thru 2 games this season…Both teams have put points on the board in 7 of 8 quarters of play…Bills have not allowed a point in the first quarter…Patriots have not allowed a point in the second quarter…New England has scored at least 31 points in 10 consecutive regular season games…Pats are 13-5 ATS last 18 regular season games

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (NL)

Eli Manning 5 TD’s, 6 INT’s last three games in Philly (NYG 1-2 ATS) Giants have scored exactly 17 points last two games here…are -4 in turnovers…Big Blue D allowing 5.3 yards per play…Giants just 6 of 25 on third down (24%)…New Yorkers have not scored a point in the fourth quarter…Eagles RB LeSean McCoy averaging 6+ yds per touch (33 rush, 6 rec)…Eagles have 9 sacks thru 2 games, but D allowing 5.1 yards per play…this is Philly home opener (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS at home in 2010)…Eagles allowed 151 yds and 14 pts in 4^th qtr vs Atl.

Detroit -3 ½ @ Minnesota

Lions have won six consecutive regular season games (6-0 ATS) Detroit is 2-0 SU and ATS this year, with both games going over the total…Lions have been a road favorite only four times in the last ten years (0-4 ATS)…Detroit has outscored their opposition 40-16 in first half…five players have at least 5 receptions, and all are averaging over 10 yards per catch…O-Line has not allowed a sack…Vikings were 0-3 as home dog last year…McNabb struggling so far- 1 Td, 1 INT, 55% completions…Adrian Peterson has touched the ball on 45 of the Vikings 108 offensive snaps (41%)…AP averaging 5+ ypc…Minny has been outscored 41-3 in second half in just two games…

Kansas City @ San Diego -14

Chiefs already -79 in point differential…have not scored in the second half…KC is -9 minutes in TOP…-7 turnover margin…last 3 games in San Diego, Chiefs have been outscored 94-34…had just 67 yards total offense last time here…San Diego 6-2 SU and ATS last year…Mike Tolbert leads all NLF RB’s in receptions (17)…Phil Rivers has completed 70% of his passes, but has thrown 4 picks…has completed at least 3 passes to 8 different players…SD -5 turnover margin

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -1

Falcons 5-1 SU, 2-3-1 ATS vs T Bay since 2008…thru two games, Atlanta has allowed 800+ yards and 6+ yards per play…halftime adjustments?...Falcons have been outscored 35-10 in third quarter...Tampa Bay has outscored opponents 31-10 in second half…Buccs 77 passes, 35 runs…50% conversion rate on third down…T Bay just 5-12 SU at home since 2009…

Green Bay -3 ½ @ Chicago

Last five meetings decided by 7 points or fewer…Green Bay has not scored more than 21 points in last five games versus Bears…G Bay defense has allowed 952 yards in two games, incl 800 aerial yards…Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 7 times already…9 players have at least 2 receptions…Chicago has not scored in the fourth quarter so far this season…Bears have not scored or allowed a rushing touchdown…Jay Cutler has been sacked 11 times already…in 33 games as Bears QB, Cutler has been sacked 98 times!

NFL WEEK 2 SIX PACK

 

Published on 09/15/11

By Spike Measer 9/14/11

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8, 45): favored Lions in unfamiliar territory…Detroit has been the chalk just 12 times in last 80 games, (never more than 6 pts)…Chiefs had 11 drives of 5 plays or fewer last week…first 3 possessions; 10 plays, 20 yards, 3 punts…KC was minus 14 mins in TOP

J’ville @ NY Jets (-9, 39): Jags 47 rushes, just 24 passes last week…had four drives of at least 11 plays (all produced points)…were 9 of 18 on third down…plus 19 mins TOP…NYJ only 45 yds on 16 rushes vs ‘Boys…Jets did not commit a penalty last week…three of first four drives were 3 and out…

Oakland @ Buffalo (-3 ½, 43): Bills had 3 consecutive TD drives in second half…+14 mins TOP…7 of 14 on third down…had just two drives of more than six plays…Raiders had less than 300 yards of offense in Monday night win…15 penalties for 131 yards…registered 5 sacks…1-4 ATS last 5 trips to eastern time zone

Arizona @ Washington (-4, 44): first of four trips to eastern time zone for Cards (0-2 ATS last year)…scored on their opening drive vs Car…two 9-play drives in the second quarter came up empty (fumble, missed FG)…had back to back TD’s in fourth quarter to tie game and take lead… shutout Giants in second half…’Skins just 2-6 SU at home last year under Shanny…

Chicago @ New Orleans (-6 ½, 47): check Urlacher status…Bears D had 5 sacks, 6 tackles for loss, and 11 hits on Matt Ryan last Sunday…Cutler avg’d 9 yds per pass…Saints had six players with at least four

receptions…rolled up 477 yds against Pack…9 of 14 on third down…New Orl 7-8-1 ATS as home fav since 2009…

San Diego @ New England (-7, 52): Pats 16-0 SU, 10-6 ATS at home last two years…incl MNF 38 pt explosion, NEP have scored at least 31 points in 9 straight reg season games (since Wk 10, 2010)…8 players caught at least one pass…4 players had six or more…allowed 416 aerial yards to Miami…Chargers have not been a 7 point underdog since 2005 (Wk 15 at Indy)…SD is 5-2-1 ATS on road last two years…

Author’s Comment: Saluting the professionalism of the New England Patriots…you will note on the 99 yard scoring play from Brady to Welker on Monday night, never once did Wes raise his arm, or the ball, or high-step on his way to the end zone. Nor did he do a preconceived celebratory dance after he crossed the goal line. This is a result of the coaching of Bill Belichick and the professionalism that permeates the New England Patriots organization. From owner Robert Kraft, down thru the administration and support staff, and all the players and coaches, there is a code of conduct, decorum and behavior that exemplifies a professional business environment. The NFL is a business entity, and the players on the teams are professionals. They should behave as such. It is not coincidence that the most successful franchise over the last 11 years is New England. Since Kraft hired Belichick to coach the team starting with the 2000 season, the Patriots are 126-50 in regular season games. They are 14-5 in the post season, including 3-1 in their four Super Bowl appearances.