By Spike Measer 8/28/11
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: 11 ½
This is the highest win total of any team posted by the odds makers for the 2011 season. New England will play three of their first four games in enemy territory, opening up at Miami, and traveling to Buffalo and Oakland after a home game against San Diego. They also have two trips to the Keystone State, playing at Pittsburgh at the end of October, and at Philadelphia to close November. The final four games of the regular season are against weaklings Washington, Denver, Miami and Buffalo. The offense is outstanding with Brady at the helm. The Pats scored more than 30 points in eleven games last season. With excellent contributors at RB, WR and TE, and another solid O-Line, they will likely win at least a dozen games. Play: OVER
New York Jets: 10
The New Yorkers could pile up 12 wins but still finish second in their division. The defense will be the calling card again this season. Last year the Jets stop unit held twelve opponents to 20 points or less. However, they also allowed a league-worst 22 plays of 20+ yards on third down! The offense is chock full of playmakers, with Antonio Holmes chief among them. The addition of Plax Burress will pay increasing dividends as the season wears on. With a solid front line, and a powerful Shonn Greene carrying the ball, Rex Ryan’s team hopes for continuing forward progress from Mark Sanchez. If that happens, this group will certainly find themselves in the post season...perhaps even a third straight AFC title game. Play: OVER
Miami Dolphins: 7 ½
The ‘Fins have finished 7-9 two years running. Of those fourteen victories, nine have come by 5 points or less. QB Chad Henne does not get his team in the end zone often enough. In 2010, Miami reached the 30 point mark just once in 16 games. Henne has thrown more INT’s than TD’s in each of his two years as the starter. But he’ll be back at the helm again this season, with results that are likely to be very similar. Although he has a new face in Reggie Bush behind him in the backfield, he and the Dolphins will no doubt miss Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. That tandem combined for 359 carries, 52 receptions and 8 touchdowns. Can HC Tony Sparano realistically expect Bush and rookie Daniel Thomas to replicate that production? Certainly not. Miami opens the season with two home games. Unfortunately for them, the opponents are New England and Houston. Then the Dolphins have trips to Cleveland and San Diego before their Week 5 Bye. Upon return, they travel to face the Jets on a Monday night. This squad could very easily be 0-5 in mid-October. They end the season with three divisional games, two of which are in the frigid December weather of Buffalo and New England. Chad Henne and Tony Sparano might both be out of a job before then. Play: UNDER
Buffalo Bills: 5 ½
The Bills continue to be a disaster. From the time the organization chose Rob Johnson over Doug Flutie to direct the offense, combined with poor coaching hires (Wade Phillips, Greg Williams, Mike Mularkey, Dick Jauron, Chan Gailey), this once very proud and successful franchise has been an embarrassment. Last season the Bills finished 4-12, although three of those losses were in OT. But this team reached the 20 point mark just four times in 16 games. Greater offensive production should not be expected. With Lee Evans gone, Steve Johnson is highly unlikely to produce another 1000 yard, 10 TD season. Gone from the defense is leading tackler Paul Poslusny. The November portion of the schedule is particularly brutal…three of the four games are consecutive road trips, and they face the Jets twice. After their home contest against Philadelphia on October 9th, the Bills will play only one other game in Orchard Park until December. (they play Washington in Toronto Oct 30th). The final portion of the 2011 slate features two road trips that figure to be wipeouts; at San Diego Dec 11th, and at New England Jan 1st. Play: UNDER
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10 ½
With three of their first four games on the road, the Steelers must survive an early test, much like they did last year without the services of Ben Roesthlisberger. This time around, Big Ben will be there from the beginning. That is a big deal when the first game is at arch rival Baltimore. After a near "gimme" at home against Seattle, Pittsburgh will head to Indianapolis, and then Houston. The Bye week comes very late (Week 11), but that will help them rest and recharge for the final leg of the regular season, and subsequent post season. The final six games have them facing Cleveland twice, along with Cincinnati, Kansas City, St Louis and San Francisco. At worst, that looks like a 4-2 closing stretch. The defense remains the standard for the league. The offense should be solid with a powerful rushing attack and some explosive receivers. (Antonio Brown is on the rise). Mike Tomlin is one of the best coaches in the loop, and this organization is laden with professionalism throughout. Play: OVER
Baltimore Ravens: 10 ½
The window of opportunity is closing rapidly on the defense. The superb Ray Lewis is 36 years old. The amazing Ed Reed will be 33 on opening day. While still a very stingy unit (Baltimore allowed only 5 opponents to surpass the 17 point mark last year), they can’t be counted on to shoulder the burden to the same degree. Also of note; defensive coordinator Greg Mattison is gone, replaced by Chuck Pagano. The stoppers will face some formidable QB’s over the course of the season, including Ben Roethlisberger and Colt McCoy twice each, as well as Mark Sanchez, Peyton Manning and Phil Rivers. But John Harbaugh’s team has a very capable signal caller of their own in Joe Flacco. This guy has improved his TD/INT ratio each of the last two seasons. He recorded 25 scoring strikes against 10 picks in 2011. With Anquan Boldin more familiar with the offense, the addition of Lee Evans, and the continued reliability of workhorse Ray Rice, OC Cam Cameron should be dialing up plenty of chain-moving plays that eventually lead to pay dirt. The Bye comes very early (Week 5), so that means 12 consecutive battles beginning October 9th, including Thursday and Saturday contests. Play: OVER
Cleveland Browns: 6 ½
The Browns were 5-11 last year, including wins over New England and New Orleans. They were 3-7 in games decided by 7 points or less. Colt McCoy is a winner going back to his high school days. He will thrive under the direction of new head coach Pat Shurmur. TE Evan Moore will be an integral part of the offense, and rookie WR Greg Little will emerge quickly as a deep threat. Peyton Hillis was a powerful back last season despite slowing a bit in the second half. Montario Hardesty should prove to be an excellent complement in the rushing attack. The Browns have an underrated offensive line featuring LT Joe Thomas, who just signed a 7-year, $84 million dollar contract. On the other side of the ball, LB’s D’Qwell Jackson and Scott Fujita will spearhead the attack. The most difficult stretch for Cleveland will be the final five games of the season. They play the Ravens and Steelers twice each, including a trip to Pittsburgh four days after a home tilt against Baltimore. Play: OVER
Cincinnati Bengals: 5 ½
The Bengals problems start at the very top with owner Mike Brown. He presides over a business that continues to make extremely poor personnel decisions. That includes head coach Marvin Lewis. Since this man took charge in 2003, Cincinnati is 60-67-1 straight up (47%). Remove the two playoff years (2005, 11-5 and 2009, 10-6), the record is 39-56 (41%). Why is he still in charge? He won’t be after this campaign. The Bengals do not have a capable QB, they have regressed at WR, and they are welcoming a new offensive coordinator. How will they put points on the board? Two of last year’s four wins came when they scored less than 20 points. They may not reach double digit scoring in more than half their games. Five of their last eight contests are against division opponents. If you listen carefully, you can hear Roger Goodell saying "Cincinnati is on the clock." Play: UNDER
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans: 8 ½
If the Texans don’t win the division this season, Gary Kubiak should be and will be shown the door. This team is absolutely loaded on offense. Houston has one of the best front lines in the league, a bevy of running backs, a dominant wide receiver, an outstanding tight end, and a quarterback with 53 TD passes over the last two seasons. The defense will receive an immediate lift from new coordinator Wade Phillips. Rookie J J Watt is a player, and the addition of CB Johnathan Joseph is an instant upgrade to a porous secondary. LB Brooks Reed, another promising rookie, will join steady tacklers DeMeco Ryans and Bryan Cushing. The AFC South is down this season, and this is an enormous opportunity for Houston to make their move. There are difficult road games at New Orleans and Baltimore. The toughest home games are against Pittsburgh and Atlanta. Despite some formidable tests, this club should be able to reach double digit wins for the first time in their history. Play: OVER
Indianapolis Colts: 9 ½
Even if Peyton Manning was absolutely 100% healthy, this team is in decline. If Peyton does miss time, the Colts are in serious trouble. If he plays in Week 1, having ZERO practice time, how effective will he be? The offensive line is not nearly as stout as it used to be, and they haven’t been an effective running team since the early days of Edge James. Assistant coaches Tom Moore and Howard Mudd, staples of the Manning era, have moved on to contribute to other teams. The defense allowed at least 24 points in each of the last seven regular season games of 2010. They lost dependable LB Clint Session, and DC Larry Coyer is still searching for the appropriate scheme to match his talent. The Colts did sign some FA’s to help on the stop side; Tommie Harris, Jamal Anderson, and Ernie Sims, all former first round draft picks. But stellar defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have both reached the age of 30, so some decline in their level of play can be expected. Road trips to New Orleans, New England and Baltimore are daunting, and home games against Pittsburgh and Atlanta look menacing as well.
In my opinion, the Indianapolis Colts, especially owner Jim Irsay and GM Bill Polian, made an egregious error when they decided to throw away the final two games of the 2009 regular season. Indy was 14-0, and the decision was made to rest players for the playoff run. The ripple effect of that decision is still being felt today. The players certainly wanted to go for the undefeated season, but Polian nixed the idea, and the chemistry in this organization has never been the same. The Colts should be recognized and lauded for their incredible run of nine consecutive seasons with at least 10 victories. From 2003 thru 2009 the Colts produced at least 12 wins! Those seven seasons show an amazing 89-23 won-loss record! But that era has passed. The Colts no longer rule the AFC South. Not only will they not win their division, they won’t even make the playoffs! Play: UNDER
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6 ½
Jack Del Rio remains at the top spot in the J’ville coaching hierarchy, but I don’t know why. Under his "guidance" since 2003, the Jags have built a record of 65-63. They have only three winning seasons during that time frame, have never won the division, and have participated in only three post season games. The 2011 slate has them visiting the Jets, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. They get New Orleans, Baltimore and San Diego at home, but they are inferior to all of those teams. The Jaguars also play back to back road games on three occasions. This team continues to suffer from below average play at quarterback. David Garrard isn’t capable of carrying a team, which is a hallmark of the elite signal callers. MJD remains a threat when healthy, but he has seen 700 touches the last two seasons, and wear and tear started taking a toll last year when he missed two games. There should be improvement on defense, where DT’s Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu will stir memories of Stroud and Henderson. Paul Posluszny improves the linebackers, and Dawan Landry helps the back four. Mediocrity reigns in Jacksonville. Play: NONE
Tennessee Titans 6 ½:
Mike Munchak takes over the team, with new assistants and numerous roster problems. Their best player is involved in a bitter contract dispute. The leading receiver is on the verge of suspension by the league. The new quarterback is Matt Hasselbeck. The 2010 leader in tackles is gone. So is the leading sacker. The schedule has them dealing with teams from the AFC North and NFC South. The Titans will be underdogs in at least twelve games this season. It is important to note that new HC Munchak has never been a head coach or even a coordinator in the NFL. History shows us that lack of experience does not bode well for brand new sideline directors in this league. (Mike Tice in Minnesota, Rod Marinelli in Detroit, Mike Singletary in SF). No miracle in Music City this year. Play: UNDER
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers: 10
Extremely poor special teams play cost the Chargers a post season berth in 2010. They have addressed that with the hiring of ST coach Richard Bisaccia. However, Norv Turner is still the HC, which is a hindrance to success in my opinion. (I still don’t understand why Marty Schottenheimer was dismissed after a 14-2 season in 2006). Despite his presence, this is one of the most talented teams in the league, and should easily win the division. Phil Rivers is establishing himself as an elite quarterback. Gates and Jackson are matchup problems for any defense. Mike Tolbert is emerging as a powerful runner. The offensive line is a top-tier unit. The kicking game is solid. The defense will improve with first rounder Corey Liuget rushing from the edge. Eric Weddle leads a very good secondary. GM A J Smith has assembled some outstanding talent since he took over in 2003, but his ego prevented him from working out a deal with Vincent Jackson last season, and that turned out to be a major problem. The contentious negotiations with Marcus McNeil continued into the season. Those situations have been resolved, and the Chargers are poised to make a deep run into the playoffs. The first half of the season they must endure visits to the east coast to face the Patriots and Jets. Other than a mid-November trip to Chicago, they don’t play any cold weather games. Green Bay and Baltimore are tough home games, but both are certainly winnable. The overall schedule appears to be quite favorable.
These could indeed be the San Diego SUPER Chargers. Play: OVER
Kansas City Chiefs: 7 ½:
The departure of OC Charlie Weis is already apparent. The Chiefs offense was abysmal in pre season. But the Kansas City offensive prowess wasn’t all that formidable with him calling the shots either. KC scored 21 points or fewer in half their games in 2010. Thomas Jones is an excellent veteran presence, and has enough tread left to be a significant contributor again this year (900 yds, 6 TD in 2010). Jamal Charles is the rising star in the rushing attack, but a repeat of his 1400+ yards from last season will be tough to replicate. Dwayne Bowe enjoyed a career year in 2010 (15 TD’s), and the guess here is that DB will haul in fewer than 10 scores this season. Matt Cassel was solid with 27 scoring strikes and only 7 picks, but he completed just 58% of his passes. On the other side of the ball there are underrated playmakers Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Tamba Hali and Tyson Jackson. The schedule is much more difficult than last year, including three of the first five games in enemy territory (Detroit, SD, Indy). The Chiefs must face New England, Pittsburgh, NY Jets and Green Bay in a 27-day span from mid-November thru mid-December. Todd Haley will find his second year at the helm much more frustrating…and it won’t include a playoff berth. Play: NONE
Oakland Raiders: 7
The Silver & Black has been black and blue since they got crushed in the Super Bowl by Tampa Bay in January 2003. In the eight seasons since then, the Raiders have compiled a record of 37-91. The 8-8 mark from last year was the first time Oakland won more than 5 games since that SB run. The Raiders did sweep their divisional opponents last season, but defeated only St Louis and Seattle outside the AFC West. Hue Jackson slides into the head coaching role, with two new coordinators supporting him. Oakland loses their best player on each side of the ball. TE Zach Miller (60/685/5) and CB Nnamdi Asomugha will be sorely missed. The inexperienced O-Line will struggle to open running lanes for Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. Not surprisingly, the Raiders led the league in penalties (165) and penalty yards (1200+) again last season. That is the only consistent thing we can count on from this club. They catch the Jets and Patriots at the "Black Hole", but they are highly unlikely to win either of those games. They also face the NFC North, travel to Houston, and they have two trips to the eastern time zone. Oakland goes back to the basement in 2011. Play: UNDER
Denver Broncos: 5 ½
The Broncos are probably elated they kept Kyle Orton as their starting quarterback. He is a capable NFL signal caller, and displayed his ample arm last season with 3600 yards passing and a 20/9 TD/INT ratio. The supporting cast was weak, and the leadership on the sideline (Josh McDaniel) lacked competency. But new HC John Fox is running the show, and he brings plenty of ability and experience to the most important non-playing position on the team. Fox is a defensive minded guy, and draft picks Von Miller and Rahim Moore will excel under his tutelage. Elvis Dumervil is healthy, and that is a very big deal for the entire team. The early slate is quite manageable, with home games against Oakland and Cincinnati to open the season. It’s a trip to Tennessee after that, so the Broncos quite possibly could be 3-0 at the end of September. They close the season with three of four at home, and a trip to Buffalo mixed in. A 3-1 stretch run is certainly attainable. Denver will improve as the season wears on, as the cumulative effect of Fox manifests on the field. Although they can’t be expected to reach the .500 mark, six or seven wins is clearly possible. Play: OVER
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